Glossary

Each lane on the map is one story we follow, such as oil or the yen. A lane’s card has two labels. The rule state tells you what happened to the price test we wrote down in advance. The thesis state tells you whether the story itself still holds. The two labels can disagree: a test can go unmet while the story holds up.

Rule states

A rule is a price test we write before the move. It names the instrument, the level, and the close it will be judged on.

FIRED. The test’s condition was met on the close it is judged on, and the card gives the date. A fired rule stays fired. If the price later moves back through the level, the rule is still fired. Only an invalidation can change it.
Example: say a rule reads “Brent settles above $80.” It fires on the first day Brent settles above $80, even if Brent falls back below $80 the next day.

NOT FIRED. The condition has not been met. This label also covers a test whose required conditions were never present, and the card says which case applies. A test that needs a level to hold for two sessions stays NOT FIRED until the second session closes.

INVALIDATED. The test can no longer be judged as written. Either its instrument, level or basis has been overtaken, or the invalidating event we named in advance has happened. We replace or retire an invalidated test openly, and we never change it quietly.
Example: say a yen test was written with “invalidated if Japan’s finance ministry intervenes.” If the ministry intervenes, the test is invalidated whatever the yen does next.

UNRESOLVED. The registered end condition remains unscored. This does not mean the confirming rule fired or the thesis was invalidated.

RETIRED UNRESOLVED. A test withdrawn without a resolved outcome. Its history records why it was retired and whether it was replaced.
Example: the old global-demand forecast test was retired because its forecast year, measure, set of forecasters and threshold were never defined. Its replacement requires two consecutive monthly rounds in which at least two of the IEA, OPEC and EIA raise their current-year demand growth forecasts.

QUEUED. The test is written down and waiting for a slot. We run at most eight live tests at once, and any test beyond that waits in line until a slot opens.

NONE REGISTERED. We follow the lane, but it has no price test.

Thesis states

We choose a lane’s thesis state by asking these questions in order. The first yes sets the label.

1. CARRIED. Is there nothing new on this lane today? If so, the card keeps its last reading and that reading’s date.
2. UNDER REVIEW. Has enough evidence built up against the thesis that the thesis itself is in question, not just today’s move?
3. MIXED. Does today’s evidence point both ways on the same thesis?
4. UNCONFIRMED. Does the evidence fit the thesis while another explanation for the same evidence remains open? The card names that explanation.
   Example: a weaker yen fits a Japan-specific story, but a broad dollar rally would explain the same move. The lane stays UNCONFIRMED until the dollar explanation is ruled out.
5. CONFIRMED. If none of the above applies, the evidence fits the thesis and no rival explanation is open.

There are no other thesis states.

Other terms

Carried lane. A lane with nothing new in this issue. It gets no full card and is listed by name in a short “unchanged” line below the cards. It keeps its last reading, and that reading’s date.

Published close. The end-of-day price a rule is judged on. For futures, this is the exchange’s official settlement. For cash indices, currencies and other vendor daily prices, it is the close. A price from during the trading day never counts. The Data sources page lists which close we use for each kind of instrument.

Withdrawn. A figure or statement we published and then took back. The issue that withdraws it says so in plain words.

Scoring feed and proxy. Each test names one scoring feed, the source whose close can fire the test. Any other price we show is a proxy. A proxy tells you how far the market is from the level and in which direction, but it cannot fire the test.
Example: if a rule is judged on Brent’s settlement, an intraday Brent price tells you how close the rule is to firing, but that price cannot fire it.

Invalidation. The event, named in advance, that would show the thesis is wrong. This is different from a test going unmet. Each issue states it in the line “What would change the view.” When an issue changes the invalidation, the old wording stays visible with a line through it.