Gold and silver gave back the war bid in a single session

The read for Tuesday is simple. Iran risk faded, the dollar and rates stayed in charge, and gold and silver behaved like duration assets rather than war hedges. Monday's reopen had handed the metals a haven bid; the question into Tuesday was whether it would hold. It did not. Both gave the bid back inside one session as a firm dollar and a hawkish Federal Reserve outweighed the war story that lifted them.

The war story ran the other way. The US Treasury waived sanctions on Iranian crude, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz began recovering, and the Geneva track stood up four working groups. De-escalation took the day.

Underneath the headline, the day was a rotation. Big Tech sold off while small-caps ripped to a record close. The cross-current tying it together is the cost of money. The 10-year yield backed up toward its recent highs and the dollar pushed to a one-year peak, pressing every rate-sensitive position at once. A peace deal cools the headlines. It does not lower the cost of money.

One caution before the data. The risk that eased is the Iran-specific chokepoint risk. War risk broadly is still live: Russia launched a fresh barrage on Ukraine overnight. And the rate read rests on one number this week, Thursday's PCE inflation print, which can confirm the headwind or crack it.

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