Q2 just closed as the best quarter for US stocks since the 2020 recovery, and the new quarter opened with the same machine running. The Dow set a second straight record on Tuesday. The loud move, though, was in gold. It slipped below $4,000 to an eight-month low. The war premium is draining out of the metal. What replaced it is a hard bet that the Federal Reserve's next move is a rate hike, with strong US data doing the pushing.
The Gulf stayed calm in the physical sense. There was no face-to-face US-Iran meeting in Doha; Qatar confirmed the talks are proceeding indirectly, and Oman put a proposal on the table that would give Tehran a formal role in administering the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance drew a hard line: any Iranian attack on Hormuz shipping brings a US military response. Israel's threat to strike within two days did not fire. The physical stand-down held for a third session.
One caveat to hold before you read too much peace into this. Thursday's June jobs report is the real test; it governs whether the September-hike odds firm or ease, and it will move the metals. And the other war did not pause. Ukraine ran one of its largest drone assaults of the conflict overnight, striking Russian navy ships in Kerch.
For paying subscribers below: the full brief with data. Every sector with current levels, the markers that would confirm or weaken each call, the conflict and capital-flow read, and full sources.
Independent editorial analysis for information and education. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell a security.