Everything this week waited on one number. The June jobs report landed Thursday morning and it was weak: hiring nearly stalled, the two prior months were revised down, and the unemployment rate fell for the wrong reason. People left the workforce. Hiring did not pull them in. In one session the market went from leaning toward a September rate hike to something much closer to even.
The tape split cleanly on the news. Gold and silver extended their rebound into a first weekly gain since late May. The Dow closed at a record. And the chip stocks, already broken from Wednesday, broke again. Rate relief arrived into the second break, and the group kept falling anyway. That is the day's tell. The paid section walks through what it rules out and what it leaves standing.
One caveat before the levels. US markets were closed Friday for the observed holiday, so Friday's metal prints are overseas spot in thin trade. The week ahead is thinner still. Iran's leadership funeral pauses the Gulf talks through July 9, and NATO leaders meet in Ankara on July 7 and 8.
For paying subscribers below: the full brief with data. The exact jobs and rate-odds prints, every sector with current levels, the markers that would confirm or weaken each call, the funeral-window and summit calendar, and full sources.
Independent editorial analysis for information and education. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell a security.