The blockade is live. The breakout is still unconfirmed.

The United States is now enforcing its blockade of Iran. Wednesday brought a fifth straight day of strikes, the first vessel disabled since the blockade went back into effect (an unladen tanker headed for Iran's Kharg Island), and transit through the strait thinned to a handful of ships; by Thursday morning, early reports had strikes reaching sites near Tehran for the first time. That is the heaviest disruption of this round of the war. Oil had every reason to break out. It settled just below the supply-break line we track instead, two sessions running, close enough that we call the breakout unconfirmed rather than rejected.

The other overnight event ran the opposite way. TSMC, the foundry behind the AI buildout, printed a record quarter and raised nearly every number that matters: the full-year outlook, capital spending, and a fresh round of US investment. That is fundamental confirmation. The price verdict waits for Thursday's session; Wednesday's stock rally, Apple's record included, belonged to soft inflation and the broader earnings tape rather than to the chip news.

One honest catch. A miss this narrow tells you the market has not yet added a new closing premium. It does not settle why; inventories, positioning, and expected de-escalation could each be doing part of the capping.

For paying subscribers below: the full brief with data. The regime dashboard, the exact Brent settlements against our marker and the marker's rationale, TSMC's full numbers and raised guides, the inflation prints by series, every sector with current levels and what would confirm or weaken each call, the Japan and yen picture, and claim-mapped sources.