Oil is knocking on $100. Now the back end is moving.

Two questions that hung over this market all week came back answered overnight. Alphabet, handed days of speculation that cheap and efficient Chinese models would let it trim its artificial-intelligence budget, raised that budget instead. Lockheed Martin, the bellwether for whether defense demand actually reaches order books, reported a record backlog this morning and raised its year. The demand showed up twice. The market sold it anyway: stock futures slipped and Alphabet fell, because the worry has moved from whether the money gets spent to whether it earns its return.

The war kept pace. American strikes on Iran ran a 12th consecutive night, and Yemen's Houthis claimed strikes on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, one hit confirmed by Riyadh, putting a second waterway in contest alongside the Strait of Hormuz. Crude traded within sight of $100 overnight. The quieter move matters more. For weeks the far end of the oil curve barely moved while the front ripped, the market's way of saying the shock was temporary and the buyers were weak. It is moving now, a second day running.

One honest catch: two mornings of a rising far curve is a lean sample, none of it confirmed at settlement, and a ready-made ceasefire proposal still sits on the table; acceptance with a date would drain the front of this market faster than any inventory report. The levels, and the lines that would settle it, are below.

For paying subscribers below: the full regime dashboard and data. The Brent settlement count and the exact curve level now under test, Alphabet's new spending range and Lockheed's record numbers, China's import data, what the metals fade says about the haven question, the Fed and Tokyo triggers, and claim-mapped sources.