For weeks the Hormuz diplomacy produced process and no paper. On Wednesday the paper arrived, and it reads harder than the market had assumed. Iranian semi-official media published draft transit terms for the strait: American and Israeli vessels barred outright, ships of other states Tehran deems hostile barred until compensation is paid, violations penalized at a fifth of cargo value. The attribution matters as much as the content. Those terms sit in a parliamentary draft bill still under expert review in Tehran, a separate instrument from the route framework Iran is negotiating with Oman. No source shows Oman signing on to any ban. Nothing is signed at all.
The tape did not treat the distinction as a technicality. Crude's front month settled sharply higher on Thursday, its largest single-session advance since this sequence began. That move answers a question we raised in yesterday's edition, and it answers it against us. A quiet session earlier this week had suggested the war premium might already be priced out. It was still in there. The market had simply been waiting to see the terms.
One caveat carries the day. A draft bill is a draft: it binds nothing, and it needs sign-off it does not yet have. The price reaction is already fact, and the decomposition of that move, along with a metals session that none of our standing explanations cover, is below the wall.
For paying subscribers below: the full regime dashboard, data, and mapped sources. Inside: the front-versus-back decomposition that locates Thursday's move in the war premium; the gold and silver session neither the dollar nor rates explain; a correction to a test we set ourselves on China's imports; and what we pre-registered for this morning's jobs print.
Independent editorial analysis for information and education. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell a security.