Hormuz traffic fell again. Most of the headline decline came from a revision.

Daily Take

The only new evidence in today's map came off the water. Lloyd's List Intelligence counted 73 transits through the Strait of Hormuz in the week of August 10 to 16, down from 91 the week before. But 91 is a revision: the same week was first reported at 78, then raised as more ships sailing with their trackers off were identified. Preliminary against preliminary, traffic fell 6.4 percent rather than the roughly 20 percent the headline implies; nearly three-quarters of the apparent decline came from the revised comparison point. The level remains clear (traffic through the strait is deeply suppressed), but the rate of deterioration is not. That leaves the blockade regime intact without strengthening it. From here, we will compare preliminary counts only with preliminary counts.

The week ahead starts Monday

Markets added no evidence over the weekend: every exchange scored in this map has been closed since Friday. Gold enters Monday on three straight higher settlements, silver $0.47 below a $70 close, and Brent still rising under the blockade premium. Monday completes one gold test and begins another; it also gives oil its first chance to satisfy the two-session demand condition. Until then, Friday's readings carry unchanged. Prices that have not traded carry no evidence, and we do not score the calendar.

For paying subscribers below: the like-for-like arithmetic on the strait's traffic count, and the quoting rule we have adopted so a revision can never inflate a headline again; the two preset gold conditions the week starts scoring, one completing Monday and one just beginning, and what each outcome would do to our confidence; why the second ship tracker cannot referee the disagreement, pinned at one vessel a day against its own stated baseline of 73; and where oil's slow-moving demand test stands while the front of the curve runs on war.