Gold rose for a fourth day. Silver fell through the same session.

Daily Take

Monday's close confirmed what the morning boards only suggested: the divergence in the metals survived the close. Gold finished higher for a fourth straight session, at its highest close in ten sessions, while silver fell 1.35 percent on the very same day. The dollar rose, which leaned against gold. Treasury yields fell, which may have helped gold, and cannot explain why silver moved the other way. So the open question is bigger than what bid gold; it is what broke the usual relationship between the two metals. If they close in opposite directions again by Thursday, we will stop scoring them as one thesis.

Overnight, in the strait

Maritime authorities report that a projectile struck and disabled an oil tanker off Oman's coast near the strait's approaches Monday night. The crew is reported safe, and no source has been identified. Oil fell sharply Monday even so; the premium in the front of that curve is pricing exactly this kind of night, and the levels that separate a fading war premium from something worse are below the wall.

Correction: Monday's issue called Japan's 0.120-point gap to 3 percent the narrowest in our record. It was wrong and we retract it; the closest was 0.061 points, on August 18. We have removed the special-attention flag. Tuesday's 2.892 percent close still leaves the yield 0.108 points from the standing trigger.

For paying subscribers below: the three-session rule that decides whether gold and silver stop being one thesis, and exactly what fires it; the oil levels that separate a draining war premium from spreading demand fear after Monday's front-led fall; and where September's Fed odds honestly sit when read off contract settlements. The value is not Monday's move; it is what would change the map.