Gold settled above $4,400 twice. Then payrolls took the coin flip back.

Daily Take

Gold settled at $4,539.90 on Thursday, up about 2.8 percent, after $4,414.60 on Wednesday. That is two consecutive settlements above $4,400, the level we set in August as the bar a re-rating would have to clear twice. Silver settled at $67.70, up about 3.4 percent. The level is met. The session that met it explains less than it seems to. The same day, our settlement-based estimate of a September rate hike fell to about 51 percent from 66, and the dollar index fell about 0.6 percent to 98.96. A softer expected rate path can weaken the dollar by itself, so those are one move measured twice rather than two rival forces, and the session cannot say how much of the rally came through each. The map records the level as met and keeps the explanation open.

Then the rate half moved. August payrolls came in at 162,000 this morning, against a consensus near 56,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1 percent and June and July both revised up. July, reported a month ago as a loss, is now a gain of 21,000. This is the upside surprise we said would re-firm the path, and coverage of the futures pricing has the September hike back above 60 percent. Our own estimate moves on settlements, and tonight's is the one that scores it.

The Gulf, meanwhile, went quiet for a night. No new American or Iranian strike appeared on the record we opened between Thursday evening and this morning, the first pause since the exchange began on Monday, and Saudi media report political talks in Rome in mid-September that Tehran has not confirmed. A pause eases the war premium. It does not settle where the premium goes.

For paying subscribers below: gold's first durability test after clearing $4,400 twice, and what a 162,000 payroll print does to a September rate path that was a coin flip yesterday. We also test oil's provisional challenge hit, and ask whether the yen can signal capital coming home while Japanese yields retreat.