A correction

Issues from November 11 to November 14 showed our crude rule as not met. It was met on November 10 and we missed it. The rule asked whether January 2027 Brent would settle below $92 on NYMEX. On November 10 it settled at $91.49, 51 cents below the line, by CME Group's settlement record. Our usual data feed for NYMEX settlements had lapsed, and those issues treated the missing reading as no reading at all, though the exchange publishes the settlement itself. The rule now stands as met on November 10, and later settlements above the line do not change that.

The bond market moved most. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the prior week at 4.86 percent and closed Friday at 5.15 percent, by Treasury's daily figures. The two-year went from 4.51 to 4.88 percent. The turn came Tuesday, when October consumer prices rose 0.4 percent and core prices 0.3 percent. That core reading met Fed Governor Waller's stated bar for weighing a half-point hike in December, Reuters reported.

Oil made a round trip. January Brent fell 5.9 percent on Monday after President Trump said he would hold off on new strikes on Iran, and settled at $91.49 on Tuesday, the week's low. On Thursday he said the US no longer needs a deal with Tehran, and Brent rose 3.3 percent to $95.82. It ended Friday at $95.84, about 2.5 percent lower on the week. The Strait of Hormuz remained short of a durable reopening.

The firmer dollar and higher yields weighed on gold, which closed below $4,000 on Thursday on vendor data. Stocks held up: the S&P 500 rose from 7,376.86 to 7,561.67, and chips recovered much of the prior week's rout. Then, on Thursday, Nvidia said Jensen Huang had resigned as chief executive. No rule on our map fired this week, and no idea changed state.

What changed in the argument

  • Rates (the biggest move): the 10-year yield rose 29 basis points on the week, to 5.15 percent. The two-year rose 34 basis points over two sessions, its sharpest two-day rise in three and a half years, Reuters reported.

  • The regime (stands): we read the Fed's official yen rate for November 4, the session left open last week. It was 158.44. We did not have the broad dollar index for that day, so the session could not isolate the yen and does not count against the regime.

  • US prices (rule not met): services prices outside energy rose 0.3 percent in October after 0.4 percent in September. Our rule needs a faster month than the one before, and October was slower.

  • Oil (rule met, then a rebound): January Brent settled at $91.49 on Tuesday, below our rule's $92 line, and was back at $95.84 by Friday. We scored the rule late; the correction above says why.

  • Gold, chips, Iran, demand, Japan, Russia (no change): no rule fired and no idea changed state.

The week, sector by sector

How to read this: each lane is a standing idea about where capital is going. The rule is the condition we set in advance and whether it has been met. The thesis is where the idea itself stands, as of our latest issue to assess it. CARRIED means we have not reassessed the idea lately and carry its last reading forward unchanged.

Rates and US prices:

The idea: how hot US demand runs, read through services prices in the monthly inflation report.
Rule: a month in which services prices outside energy rise faster than the month before. NOT FIRED.
Thesis: CARRIED.
WHERE IT STANDS
The October report showed those prices up 0.3 percent after 0.4 percent in September, a slower month, so the rule is not met. Headline prices rose 0.4 percent and core 0.3 percent. Producer prices for final demand rose 0.3 percent in October, after a revised 1.4 percent in September. Yields climbed through the week, from 4.86 to 5.15 percent on the 10-year. The Fed's range is still 3.75 to 4 percent, and it decides next on December 9.

Crude, the front of the curve:

The idea: the front of the oil curve carries a war premium for the risk around the Strait of Hormuz.
Rule: a January 2027 Brent settlement below $92 on NYMEX. FIRED November 10, scored November 14.
Thesis: UNCONFIRMED.
WHERE IT STANDS
On NYMEX, January Brent settled at $91.49 on Tuesday, 51 cents below the rule's line, after $92.57 on Monday. The rule fired there. It does not settle the idea. Brent rose to $92.76 on Wednesday and $95.82 on Thursday, and ended Friday at $95.84, against $98.32 a week earlier, so part of the premium came back within two sessions. The rival reading, slower demand and returning supply, is not ruled out, so the idea stays unconfirmed. Later settlements above $92 do not undo the rule.

Global demand, the back of the curve:

The idea: high prices are eroding oil demand, and the far end of the curve shows it before the front does.
Rule: far-end leg FIRED October 20; forecast leg NOT FIRED.
Thesis: UNDER REVIEW.
WHERE IT STANDS
December 2027 Brent went from $80.59 to $79.98 over the week, a far smaller move than the front's. The forecasters leaned toward slack. The EIA's November outlook sees world oil use about 2 million barrels a day lower this year. The IEA sees a fourth-quarter surplus of 1.7 million barrels a day, Reuters reported. OPEC held its demand growth forecast, by relays of its report. A held forecast is not an upgrade, so the forecast leg did not move.

Iran and Hormuz:

The idea: until the strait reopens for good, the conflict keeps Gulf oil supply constrained.
Rule: a durable reopening of the strait. NOT FIRED.
Thesis: UNCONFIRMED.
WHERE IT STANDS
Over the weekend a missile damaged a Saudi Aramco office building in Riyadh, CNN reported, and the US enforced its blockade on a ship leaving an Iranian port, AP reported. Iraq said it had reached understandings with the US to export oil through a lane near Oman, Reuters reported. Tankers were reported struck on several days. Iran's forces claimed mine hits that Reuters could not confirm. On Friday the Houthis said they struck Riyadh's main airport and a pumping station on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline; Middle East Eye reported no Saudi confirmation. The strait remained short of a durable reopening.

Japan and the yen (the current regime):

The idea: a narrower US-Japan policy-rate gap pulls the yen up. The Bank of Japan's 1.25 percent rate, in effect since September 24, narrowed its gap to the Fed.
Rule: JGB leg FIRED September 15; yen leg NOT FIRED.
Thesis: CARRIED.
WHERE IT STANDS
USD/JPY closed at 157.50 a week ago and at 159.73 on Thursday, on vendor data, after briefly touching 160, Reuters reported. That is far below the 165 line. On Friday Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government would respond appropriately to currency volatility. That was a spoken warning. Japan's intervention figures for November are due November 30. The dollar index rose from 102.30 to 103.41 over the week, so the yen's slide came with a broadly firmer dollar.

Gold:

The idea: gold's advance rests on real yields and confidence in the money.
Rule: December leg INVALIDATED October 30, scored November 5; earlier leg INVALIDATED October 14, scored October 17.
Thesis: UNDER REVIEW.
WHERE IT STANDS
December gold closed near $4,075 a week ago and at $3,886.30 on Friday, on vendor closes. We could not read official COMEX settlements this week, so we give no weekly percentage. The biggest drop came Thursday, when December gold fell 2.88 percent to $3,885.30, RTTNews reported, tying it to rate expectations. The 10-year real yield stood at 2.86 percent on November 12, by FRED. No gold rule is in force, and we have not set a new one on a vendor close.

Chips, memory and foundry:

The idea: demand for advanced chips is structural and is spreading from memory into foundry.
Rule: Micron leg FIRED September 30, scored October 2; TSMC leg FIRED October 8.
Thesis: MIXED.
WHERE IT STANDS
The Philadelphia semiconductor index rose from 9,390.25 to 10,033.93 on Monday, as TSMC reported October sales about 15 percent above September's. It reached 10,564.11 on Wednesday and ended Friday at 10,146.32. Nvidia fell sharply on Thursday after its chief executive resigned. Our idea rests on the buyers' spending, and the week's news was about the supplier's leadership.

Russia-Ukraine and sanctions:

The idea: whether pressure on Russian energy revenue tightens or eases.
Rule: waiver leg NOT FIRED; earlier leg INVALIDATED October 16.
Thesis: CARRIED.
WHERE IT STANDS
US-mediated talks ran in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11, with Vladimir Medinsky leading Russia's side and Rustem Umerov Ukraine's, Meduza reported. They ended with an agreement on a large prisoner exchange, by Russia's account; no next round was set. On Thursday Britain sanctioned Russia's ten largest oil producers.

Rates: one inflation report, and the 10-year crossed 5 percent

The week's biggest repricing came from a single release. On Tuesday the October consumer price report landed with headline prices up 0.4 percent, after 0.6 percent in September, and core prices up 0.3 percent for a third straight month. Energy cooled sharply, to 0.7 percent from 5.2. The core figure was the one that mattered. Fed Governor Waller had said a core reading like it would put a half-point hike on the table for December. Two-year yields had their largest one-day rise since April 2025, Reuters reported.

The bond market was shut Wednesday for Veterans Day. On Thursday the 10-year closed at 5.10 percent and the two-year at 4.86. Two forces were in play. Reuters named Fed officials worried about stubborn inflation and Trump's Iran comment, without weighing them; AP and RTTNews tied the bond move to dearer oil. Friday's producer prices rose 0.3 percent, and the 10-year ended at 5.15 percent.

The dollar rose with yields, and gold took the other side. We read gold's slide as the work of the firmer dollar and of bets on a December hike. The real yield, which is what gold competes with, stood at 2.86 percent on Thursday. One caveat applies. We have that real yield only on a few days, so we cannot measure how much of gold's decline it explains.

Oil: the war premium faded, then partly returned

Monday's 5.9 percent fall followed Trump's word that he would hold off on new strikes, after appeals from regional leaders including Qatar's prime minister. He also said the US naval blockade stays for now. On Tuesday morning Brent traded below $90 for the first time since August 31, Reuters reported, about 23 percent below its six-month high of $118. It settled at $91.49.

Tuesday raised a harder question. A tanker was struck near Hormuz that afternoon, and oil fell anyway. The far end of the curve fell more than the front that day, which fits slower forces, such as weaker demand or returning supply, better than a fading war premium. Wednesday took that lean back, when the whole curve rose together. One session cannot say which force is at work.

Thursday reversed the lean. Trump said Washington no longer needs a deal with Tehran, and Brent rose 3.3 percent, AP reported. Reuters also cited Houthi-claimed attacks on Saudi energy sites and Iran's claim that four tankers were hit; neither claim was verified. The front rose more than the far end, the shape a war premium leaves. On Friday Brent barely moved, on a day the IEA called a fourth-quarter surplus. The week ended with the premium partly rebuilt and the slack still visible further out.

Chips: a rebound, then a leadership shock at Nvidia

Chips spent most of the week recovering. The semiconductor index rose almost 7 percent on Monday on TSMC's October sales, and by Wednesday it stood at 10,564.11, against 9,390.25 at the prior Friday's close.

Then came Nvidia. On Sunday its board opened an independent investigation after reports that Huang had been the target of a foreign intelligence effort, saying it had no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised. On Wednesday the board accepted Huang's resignation as president, chief executive and director, with immediate effect, and Nvidia announced it on Thursday, by its filing with the SEC. Chief financial officer Colette Kress became interim chief executive. Nvidia's announcement gave no reason. Any link between the investigation and the resignation is an inference from the timing. Nvidia's shares fell 14 percent at Thursday's open and were down 5.4 percent later in the session, AP reported.

Our chip idea rests on what the biggest buyers spend. A change at the top of the largest supplier is a question about the supplier. Spending is the buyers' decision. The two are not sealed off from each other: a leadership crisis can reach buyers through product schedules, export licensing, governance and customer confidence. So the question for the coming weeks is whether the change at Nvidia alters what customers commit to spend, when they deploy, or how well Nvidia delivers. Its results on November 17 cover a quarter that ended October 25, before any of this, so they cannot answer that alone. Its guidance will be the first word from the new leadership.

Where the regime stands. Our standing regime holds that a narrower US-Japan rate gap pulls the yen up. The gap did not change this week; neither central bank met. The yen weakened toward 160 per dollar, which runs against the idea. The dollar index also rose, though, so no session isolated the yen, and the test that would end the regime needs a flat dollar. The regime stands. A yen that keeps weakening while the dollar index holds still would close it.

Calendar: Tuesday, November 17, Nvidia's quarterly results, the first since the change of chief executive; Wednesday, November 18, the EIA's weekly petroleum report (expected); Thursday, November 19, a new gold rule or the lane's retirement; Monday, November 30, Japan's monthly intervention figures; Wednesday, December 9, the Fed's decision; Thursday, December 10, November consumer prices.

Sources & reporting used

This is research and commentary for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security, commodity, or other asset. Prices and figures are drawn from public reporting at the time of writing and may be out of date. Markets carry risk, including loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed advisor before making any investment decision.

Independent editorial analysis for information and education. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell a security.