Kyiv is hit, markets firm anyway. NATO's contract day is next.

Markets came back from the long weekend to a darker war and a friendlier tape. Russia hit Kyiv with waves of missiles and drones early Monday; early reports put the toll at least 11 in the capital, with counts still climbing, and Russia's Defense Ministry said the quiet part aloud: the barrage was retaliation for Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries. Ukraine answered the same night with a fire at yet another refinery. The fuel war now runs on a declared loop. It lands one day before NATO's summit opens in Ankara with a defense-industry signing day.

The tape looked past the smoke. Stock futures firmed, chip names bounced after two hard weeks, and European defense stocks rallied after NATO's chief said contractors are straining to keep pace with allied spending. Gold and silver held the ground they took Thursday. Crude went the other way: OPEC+ formally approved another output increase for August, and Brent slipped again. The supply impulse stopped being a forecast. It is now policy.

One honest caveat. Everything above is the early tape, captured before the close. The test that matters most, whether chips can put in a higher low after their drawdown, only resolves at the closing bell. An opening bounce settles nothing.

For paying subscribers below: the full brief with data. Current levels for gold, silver, crude, and the dollar; the chip-sector test spelled out; the adverse European-defense print the holiday window concealed; what tomorrow in Ankara would have to produce to count; every confirm-or-weaken marker; full sources.