The ceasefire is over. The fear went into oil and skipped gold.

The question the funeral pause left open was answered with missiles. On Tuesday, US and Gulf officials attributed missile attacks on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz to Iran's Revolutionary Guard; one hit set a Qatari gas carrier's engine room on fire off the Omani coast. Early Wednesday the United States answered with strikes on dozens of Iranian targets and revoked Tehran's authorization to sell crude openly. Iran claimed retaliatory strikes on American facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. Speaking from the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump declared the ceasefire "over".

The tape re-priced the war overnight, and it chose sides. Oil jumped hard. Stocks fell everywhere except the energy patch. And the metals, the classic war trade, failed to hold a clean bid; the haven flow went to the dollar instead. That split is the day's tell. It says the metals are trading the rate calendar rather than the war.

One caveat: this is written before the US close and before this afternoon's Fed minutes. The first full war session, and the first read of the Fed against a fresh oil spike, both resolve later today.

For paying subscribers below: the full brief with data. The overnight prints and where crude trades as of this writing; the state of Hormuz traffic; why silver fell on a war morning and the levels that would change that read; the chip test's verdict; NATO's dated procurement numbers and the sell-the-news setup; every confirm-or-weaken marker; full sources.