A war week, and the metals still fell

The week asked a clean question. If a war can nearly halt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and light up the Gulf night after night, does the fear finally reach the safe-haven trade? The answer came back no. By Saturday morning, the shooting had slowed and Iran's foreign minister had arrived in Oman for talks focused on safe passage through the strait. President Trump said negotiations would continue even as he declared the June ceasefire over. This is a pause inside a live conflict. It is not a settlement.

Here is the tell. Gold and silver did not catch the war bid; both finished the week flat to lower, through a week that nearly halted traffic through the strait and ran strikes night after night. They tracked the dollar and the Fed's calendar instead. US stocks continued to shrug off the latest Gulf escalation: Friday closed green and the chip complex led, with SK Hynix's US listing popping on its debut. The same forces reach Tokyo, where a weak yen makes imported energy dearer and long-term government bond yields sit near multi-decade highs. This week the authorities leaned on words, and those yields eased back from the stress line.

One honest caveat. The lull comes with a live target list, and Tehran has signaled it wants US concessions before it commits, so the pause could be an honor-served close or a reload window. No dated follow-on meeting has been fixed yet.

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