The weekend escalation is unpriced. Sunday night is the first test.

Friday's close captured an already-escalating week. It did not capture what came after. Brent settled at $76.01 after a gain of about 5.5% on the week. Then Iran struck a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States hit about 140 Iranian targets, and Iran retaliated against targets across the region.

Tehran says the strait is closed. CENTCOM says commercial ships are still transiting. The honest read this morning is narrower than closure confirmed: disruption worsened sharply, and how complete the physical halt is stays disputed.

That leaves the weekend leg, rather than the whole war, missing from Friday's commodity closes. The first signal comes in Sunday evening's futures, when COMEX gold and ICE Brent reopen. The one that matters more is whether any opening gap survives the Asian and European sessions and into Monday's cash session, or fades as traders again price a bounded exchange and an eventual return of transit. The same oil shock reaches Japan, where a weak yen makes imported energy dearer and rising bond yields tighten Tokyo's policy bind.

For paying subscribers: the Sunday-night decision tree. What confirms a genuine Hormuz shock in crude, what separates a haven bid from a rates trade in gold, the Japan signals that would turn slow strain into active intervention risk, plus every sector's levels and full sources.