Iran declared the strait shut. Gold fell anyway.

Over the weekend Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed after striking a container ship, and Washington answered with a third round of strikes. The United States disputes that the waterway is shut, and traffic has not stopped, but ship trackers show a severe slowdown. The market had been closed all weekend, so Monday’s reopening gave it a useful, if not controlled, test of the safe-haven reflex.

Gold failed that test. Spot gold fell about 1.4%, silver fell more, by roughly 2% or a bit more depending on the feed, and the dollar index was slightly soft near 100.9. The more direct evidence came from rates: the two-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.2%, and futures kept the odds of a September Fed hike near seven-in-ten. The reaction is consistent with oil-driven inflation fears overpowering the haven bid. It does not prove cause; positioning and the metals’ existing decline remain live alternatives.

Brent rose roughly 3% to 4% into the high $70s, a serious move, but not yet a disorderly supply break. The same oil move reaches Tokyo too, where a weak yen makes imported energy dearer and pushes long-term Japanese yields toward the 3.0% level the market watches. Tuesday’s June inflation report will test the price pressure already in place; Monday’s oil spike will not enter that print, though it can lift inflation expectations now and feed into July data released next month.

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