The war moved oil. Inflation moved gold.

For weeks the disruption intensified while oil refused to confirm it. This morning that changed. Iran struck two UAE tankers, producing a reported fatality, as the US extended its campaign into a third consecutive night. Brent pushed above $85, our supply-break marker, and traded near $87. The move still needs a daily close to count as confirmation.

Gold sat through all of it. It barely moved on the war, then jumped about 2% once the June inflation report came in soft. That sequence is the tell. Gold here is trading the rate path rather than the shooting: a cooler print pulled Treasury yields and the dollar down, and the metal rose with them. One report is not the whole case, but it is the cleanest read yet.

The same weak-yen, dear-energy squeeze reaches Tokyo, where a firmer oil bill and rising government-bond yields tighten Japan's policy bind. One note on the data: June is before this month's oil spike, so the war premium is not in this report. That bill arrives in the July report next month.

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