Oil broke $90 in the night. By morning the market had handed it back.

The weekend gave the war every reason to own Monday's tape. The United States flew a ninth consecutive night of strikes, widening to bridges and a desalination plant; the American death toll climbed again; sirens sounded in Bahrain. Crude did what crude does on a night like that and gapped above $90.

Then the morning happened. By the early US premarket the bid was gone: oil traded back near Friday's levels, equity futures turned green, and Friday's battered chip stocks were being bought. Three headlines gave the market an exit narrative. The president called Iran "very, very badly damaged," which reads as winding down. His energy secretary said roughly two thirds of the Strait of Hormuz's pre-war flow still moves. And before the US open, Tehran floated talks "based on national interests."

One honest catch. Everything above is a premarket read, and premarket is an opening bid. The oil marker we track resolves at this afternoon's official settlement, and the cash session renders its own verdict. The overnight tape said panic. The morning tape said spike. The close gets the deciding vote.

For paying subscribers below: the full brief with data. The regime dashboard, the exact Brent settlements against our marker and what today's settle must deliver, the chip-bounce levels and the precedent being tested, gold and silver with their settlement triggers, the NATO counter-drone print, the Fed odds snapshot, the Japan and yen picture, and claim-mapped sources.