A 10-day truce is on the table. Oil is already trading the off-ramp.

For the first time in this round of the war, there is a piece of paper on the table. Mediators from Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan handed Washington and Tehran a 10-day ceasefire plan that would halt the fighting, reopen both shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, and buy room to salvage the collapsing interim deal. Iran, it turns out, had quietly drafted its own 10-day version. Neither capital has accepted. Both spent the night saying so with ordnance: a 10th consecutive night of American strikes, and a fresh Houthi threat against Saudi shipping.

The market answered anyway. Crude eased on the diplomatic reports, equity futures turned green for a second morning with chip stocks out front, and gold sat still. The timing is the story. This fade arrived one day after the oil-market escalation signal this publication tracks finally confirmed at Monday's official settlement. The alarm rang. The next morning, the market started arguing with it.

One honest catch. A proposal is paper. Both sides are still shooting to improve their leverage, and only acceptance with a date on it converts hope into a change of regime. Until then the tape is pricing a possibility.

For paying subscribers below: the full regime dashboard and data. The Brent settlements that fired our marker, the ceasefire terms and confirmation test, chip levels into Big Tech earnings, metals and defense triggers, the Fed snapshot, Japan's oil-and-yen pressure, and claim-mapped sources.