The war changed shape over the weekend instead of cooling. On the axis everyone watches, the guns went quiet: for a second straight night the United States announced no strikes on Iran, senior advisers argued inside the White House against escalating further, and Iranian and Omani diplomats spent two days in Tehran working on how tankers might safely move through the Strait of Hormuz again. Then the other axis fired. Houthi missiles and drones struck Saudi Aramco facilities at Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday, setting fire to a major refinery. It is the first direct strike on Saudi oil infrastructure of this war.

Here is what matters for Monday. The attack landed while the market was shut, and nothing that happened this weekend has traded. Any headline claiming crude surged on Saturday is describing a session that does not exist. The futures reopen Sunday evening, and Monday's settlement delivers the first honest verdict on what a burning Saudi refinery is worth.

One honest caveat: no one has yet said what the missiles actually broke, and the answer decides whether this was symbolic or supply. Underneath the war, meanwhile, fresh data showed the world's biggest oil buyer buying even less. The exact levels, and the lines that would settle each question, are below.

For paying subscribers below: the full regime dashboard and data. Friday's exact settlements and the curve level the reopen will test, the refinery's size and what is and is not confirmed, China's import and fuel-export numbers, the Fed-odds repricing by the numbers, the defense cohort's record backlogs into Wednesday's completion, the Tokyo triggers into the Bank of Japan decision, and claim-mapped sources.

Independent editorial analysis for information and education. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell a security.