Three quiet nights took the war out of oil. The strait is still shut.

For a third night running the United States launched no strikes on Iran, and Tehran held its own fire, with both sides saying the quiet is meant to give negotiators room. The oil market rendered its opening verdict this morning: Brent gapped down hard at the reopen, giving back in hours a war premium that took weeks to build. Metals rose into the fall, stock futures firmed, and Treasury yields eased.

The discipline is in what did not change. The pause covers airstrikes only. The US Navy spent the weekend redirecting and boarding ships to enforce its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and no one has yet said what Saturday's missile strike actually broke at a major Saudi refinery. A market can price the diplomacy while the chokepoint stays shut. That is a forward bet, and the contracts grade it this afternoon, when the first settlement of this new tape prints.

One honest caveat: every price this morning is a reading on a moving board, and nothing has settled since Friday. Fresh Chinese import data also reversed overnight, in the direction that cuts against the demand story this letter has been building. The exact levels, and the lines the settlement must answer, are below.

For paying subscribers below: the full regime dashboard and data. This morning's exact prints, front and far curve, against Friday's settlements and the line today's close must answer, the China import reversal by the numbers, the Fed's live hike tail into Wednesday, the Tokyo triggers into the Bank of Japan, and claim-mapped sources.