The pause broke on night four. The war premium is walking back in.

The four-day pause in direct US-Iran strikes ended Tuesday evening with an Iranian ballistic missile launch at American forces, according to US Central Command; all were intercepted. Proxy and maritime attacks had continued underneath the pause, and what broke Tuesday was the direct exchange. Hours later, US and Saudi forces struck Iranian-aligned militia positions in Iraq, and Iranian state media claimed Revolutionary Guard forces struck and halted three tankers near Hormuz, with damage and casualties unconfirmed. Four days without direct strikes had built the strongest de-escalation evidence this war has produced. One evening erased it.

Crude answered before New York was awake. The front of the Brent curve jumped several percent in the morning session while the far end moved a fraction as much, the same shape as Monday's unwind, run in reverse. A headline gap is sentiment. This afternoon's settlement is the verdict. And it shares the day with the Federal Reserve, which decides this afternoon carrying a genuine, priced-in chance of a hike.

There is a third thread: General Dynamics reported results this morning that came in above expectations, completing a four-company read on the defense sector that we grade below. One honest caveat for the day: every Wednesday price here is a morning reading, and the verdicts that matter, the oil settlement, the Fed, and the biggest AI spenders after the close, all land in the hours after this letter goes out.

For paying subscribers below: the full regime dashboard and data. The front-versus-far curve numbers behind the morning's war bid; the Fed odds we derive straight from the futures board, and how they square with a unanimous economist poll; General Dynamics by the numbers and the preliminary four-company cohort read; the metals question that finally got its clean test; every Tokyo marker into this week's Bank of Japan meeting; claim-mapped sources.