The Fed held, and the tape heard the dissents. The strikes moved inside Iran.

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate Wednesday, and the market refused to take the hold at face value. Three of twelve voters dissented in favor of a hike, long-term yields rose on the worry that the central bank is falling behind an oil-fed inflation impulse, and every major US index closed sharply lower. A hold is supposed to calm a tape. This one tightened it.

Overnight the war closed the question our last letter left open: US forces struck targets inside Iran, a heavy wave against Revolutionary Guard missile and drone sites by Central Command's description. Crude had already rendered its verdict where verdicts count: Wednesday's settlement confirmed the war bid at the front of the curve, while the far end barely moved, still pinned by the fact that the world's biggest oil importer keeps buying less.

And the biggest AI spenders reported. Spending held across the board, but one of them produced the first clear profitability warning of the sequence, a different question from demand and a newer one. One honest caveat: every Thursday number here is a morning reading, and Amazon's report tonight and the Bank of Japan's decision tomorrow both land after this letter goes out.

For paying subscribers below: the full regime dashboard, data, and section-mapped sources. The settlement-grade curve numbers behind the war bid and the demand cap they left intact; what actually moved inside the Fed odds number that printed unchanged; Meta's margin arithmetic with the one-time items separated out, beside the completed four-company defense read; and every Tokyo marker into tomorrow's Bank of Japan decision.