Iran hit back at US forces. Brent broke back above $92.

Daily Take

Iran's answer to Sunday's US strike at the Strait of Hormuz came within hours. Revolutionary Guard missiles and drones went at two bases housing American forces in Jordan, with a concurrent drone strike on the UAE; Jordan's military said it intercepted eight missiles. Overnight, two oil tankers were struck by projectiles in the strait itself, hits nobody has claimed. Brent broke above $92 in early trading, a level it last held before August's war premium unwound, and has traded around the line since. Gold and silver fell for a second day as the odds of a September rate hike firmed: the war bid is going into oil while the metals trade with the rate path. The exchange may widen or it may stop here; Tehran is publicly floating a return to June's framework even as Washington vows a further response. Tonight's settlement tells us whether the $92 break holds.

For paying subscribers below: the Brent settlement tonight that would confirm the war premium's return, and the question it would still leave open; the evidence that rate expectations are driving gold and silver lower even as missiles fly; and how close Japan's 10-year yield came to 3 percent, with what a clean break would set in motion.