Brent settled above $92. Japan's 10-year yield closed above 3%.

Daily Take

Two market lines broke within a day, but they do not carry equal weight. Brent settled at $94.65, its first settlement back above the registered $92 line since August's war premium unwound. The move followed another US-Iran exchange in which, according to US officials, American strikes hit Revolutionary Guard air defenses, radars, mine-laying sites, and two Iranian government tankers at anchor. Iran fired 13 ballistic missiles at Jordan and sent drones toward a base in Bahrain; most were intercepted and no casualties were reported.

The oil break has a visible mechanism: near-term crude jumped while December 2027 barely moved. Japan's 10-year close above 3 percent is different. Oil inflation, Governor Ueda's hike signal, and Tokyo's fiscal plans all fit the move, while the two feeds cleared the line by only 0.3 to 1.8 basis points. Tonight's Brent settlement and Thursday's Tokyo close begin telling us whether either break holds.

For paying subscribers below: the Brent settlement that would tell us the war premium is leaving oil, and why the shape of the futures curve says this is a war move rather than a demand recovery; what Japan's close above 3 percent does and does not establish, and the Tokyo close that would mark it as noise rather than a break; and why Tuesday's third straight fall in gold and silver is weaker evidence for the rate story than Monday's was.