Oil climbed on war risk. Gold fell with a soft dollar.

Daily Take

Houthi drones and missiles hit Saudi oil facilities in four southern cities early Tuesday, and the US and Iran traded attacks around the Strait of Hormuz. Tuesday's settlements split. Brent's November contract settled at $97.92, up about 1%, while oil for delivery in December 2027 rose less than a point: the market is paying for supply risk in the next few months and barely repricing the years after. Gold settled at $4,439, down about 0.8%, on a day the dollar was softer. A weaker dollar usually helps gold. Something else was pushing harder. The 10-year Treasury is at its highest since 2023 and the 10-year real yield sits near 2.4%. That is a plausible headwind we have not yet tied to this session. Then Wednesday morning Brent printed above $100 for the first time since late July, up about 2.6%, with the December 2027 contract again rising a third as much. War risk is lifting near-term oil. Gold's decline suggests other pressures outweighed any haven support. The next settlements will show whether that divergence persists.

Correction: we missed evidence that the energy campaign was already under way

Yesterday's issue said the September 2 Russian strike on Odesa's power system was a one-region event that fell short of the test we set for September 13, a large-scale wave against Ukraine's grid. Ukraine's grid operator had already described that night as a massive attack on Odesa's energy infrastructure with outages spreading to four more regions. The evidence was public before we set the test. We retract the one-region characterization and now carry the energy campaign as under way. Yesterday's issue also said the Jazan refinery strike had no claimant. The Houthis claimed it publicly the same day, and Saudi officials put the toll at 73 wounded across the four cities, with counts still being reconciled.