Oil above $100. The biggest repricing is still near-term.

Daily Take

US Central Command says American forces destroyed five crude oil carriers Monday and Tuesday, four in the Gulf of Oman and one near Kharg Island, the terminal that loads most of Iran's crude exports. Iran says it fired on a Jordanian air base and on two American vessels. No hit on a US hull has been confirmed. Brent's November contract settled Wednesday at $101.21, its first settlement above $100 since July 23, while oil for delivery in December 2027 barely moved. Gold and silver both rose on a day the dollar finished flat, which cuts against the currency as the driver without naming what replaced it. The question is not whether Iran's closure order is new. It is not. It is whether this week's escalation deepens the disruption or makes it last longer, and so far the repricing sits almost entirely in the near term.

Correction: Iran's shipping restrictions are not new

Yesterday's issue said the zone Iran announced Sunday was still only an announcement three days on. That was wrong, and we retract it. The Revolutionary Guard formally declared the Strait of Hormuz closed on March 2, and Lloyd's List has dated the Hormuz crisis to March ever since. Tuesday's move widened a prohibited zone that already existed, pushing it into the Sea of Oman and the Arabian Sea. We spent several days waiting for an event that had happened six months earlier. It changes what this week means: a widening of a standing closure order rather than the start of one.