Japan's 10-year yield closed above 3 percent. The yen barely moved.

Daily Take

Japan's finance ministry published Tuesday's official 10-year figure on Wednesday morning in Tokyo. It reads 3.028 percent, against 2.988 the day before, which carries the yield above the 3 percent mark this letter has watched since spring. The reported reason was fiscal: an outline for a consumption-tax cut and household payouts with no funding attached, arriving alongside a cabinet reshuffle. The central bank had little to do with it, and it decides Thursday into Friday. The currency barely reacted. The dollar bought 155.02 yen on Wednesday morning, almost exactly what it bought the day before. A yield through a line that the currency ignores is a narrower event than the number alone suggests, and it leaves this week's two central-bank decisions carrying more weight than the break itself.

Today's other move

The Federal Reserve decides this afternoon, and the path softened on the way in. Our settlement-based estimate of a quarter-point rise eased to about 94 to 96 percent, from 98.6 on the previous settlement. That is still a heavily favored move, and the change is one of texture rather than of mind. Elsewhere the board spent 24 hours arguing with itself. Crude settled Tuesday with the front contract up 2.90 percent while the far end of the curve added 0.45, then inverted that shape overnight. Gold did something it had not done all week: it rose while the dollar sat still.