Daily Take
Today's settlement marks have not printed yet, so every scored market level in this issue still comes from Friday. This afternoon's settlements are the week's first new scoreable evidence. The change came from Washington: the Trump-Xi summit ended with agreed tariff reductions on a list of ordinary goods, reported at about 30 billion dollars of imports a side, or 42 billion combined by one outlet, the first act in that channel after months of meetings. Nothing reported touches chips or export controls, and the truce's end date is still unresolved, so the part of the trade regime that moves capital is where it was.
Japan's ten-year sits above 3 percent on published readings, about 3.07 on Friday. The leg of our rule that scores that level fired on September 16 and stays scored. What is new is a second story for the yield: a government issuing more debt can lift it just as a carry unwind can, and the two stories predict different yens.
Gold closed Friday at 4,321.20, between our 4,300 and 4,400 lines. WTI closed at 92.41. Today's settlements are the next test of both, and of Brent against 92.
Monday edition, written before the open: every market level below is a Friday, September 25 close unless otherwise noted.
The scoreboard
How to read this: each lane is a standing idea about where capital is going. Rule is the condition we set in advance and whether it has been met; Thesis is what the evidence says about the idea. Definitions: Glossary
| Lane | Rule | Rule state | Thesis state | What changed | Next test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade / US-China | No price line; the test is an official notice naming the truce's end date | Tariff reductions on a list of ordinary goods, announced September 26 and reported at about 30 billion dollars of imports a side. Nothing reported touches chips or export controls. No official readout has landed yet. | An official readout, October 3; an official notice settling the truce's end date, October 1. | ||
| Japan / the yen | USD/JPY at 165, or the ten-year JGB above 3.00 percent | JGB LEG , scored September 16; YEN LEG | Published readings put the ten-year at about 3.07 on Friday. Published USD/JPY quotes for the latest completed session sit between 157 and 159, well under 165; we quote no move. | The finance ministry's next published ten-year row; a close at 165; the ministry stepping in again. | |
| Crude / the front of the curve | A Brent front-month settlement below our $92 line | UNSCORABLE, HELD: Friday's Brent settlement not established | Brent's last confirmed close is Thursday's 106.60; published Friday closes still disagree and no exchange record confirms one. WTI closed Friday at 92.41, down 2.20 from Thursday's 94.61. | Today's Brent settlement against 92, which resumes the rule. | |
| Global demand / the back of the curve | A December 2027 Brent settlement holding above our $75 line through a calm-front session retires the idea; a settlement below $75 confirms it | , the calm-front condition absent | December 2027 last read 79.83 on Thursday morning, September 24; Friday's front moved more than two dollars, so the session does not count. Conflicting September import estimates leave the restock test unscored. | A December 2027 settlement above 75 through a calm front; China's September imports with refinery runs beside them, October 20. | |
| Gold / miners | Two consecutive front-month COMEX settlements above $4,400 | , count at zero | Friday's 4,321.20 close, up 23.20 from Thursday's 4,298.00, sits between the 4,300 and 4,400 lines; the dollar index closed down 0.32 at 100.97. | Today's settlements against 4,300 and 4,400. | |
| Rates / the Fed | The October path holding above one step on the settlement | , scored on the September 21 settlement | Our estimate of an October 28 increase last scored at about 60 percent on the September 21 fed funds futures settlement. | The next scored settlement, and whether October still sits above half on it. | |
| US equities and semiconductors | The August 13 record close retaken | S&P 500 7,743.41 on Friday's close, up 39.28 and under the record; the semiconductor index closed at 12,668.93. | Micron's results Wednesday, September 30; TSMC's September sales around October 10. |
Markets and economy, thesis states unchanged: silver (70 unmet) · uranium (80 unmet) · quantum · AI infrastructure (held to October 23) · European defense · the defense primes (fiscal-year deadline Wednesday) · drones · critical minerals (rides on the truce date) · US consumer (payrolls Friday) · cybersecurity · renewables
Geopolitics, thesis states unchanged: Russia-Ukraine (strikes across Ukraine on Sunday, September 27, after Moscow rejected German calls to de-escalate; at least six dead by early reports, with some later counts higher; power cut in eight regions, no rolling blackouts imposed) · NATO borders · Red Sea · Taiwan · Iran and Hormuz
Carried lanes, the detail: silver (no clean official settlement above 70 this week) · uranium (Cameco's table still shows the August pair, 89.68 spot and 96.50 long-term, a gap of 6.82; no September row yet) · AI infrastructure (no dated company development this weekend; re-check October 23) · European defense (strikes continued and a de-escalation call was rejected; our ceasefire condition is untouched, and a reported cruise-missile order is not counted until it prints) · the defense primes (the stopgap must pass the Senate and be signed by Wednesday, September 30; a reported Tomahawk award is not counted) · critical minerals (the summit does not re-date the rare-earth suspension; a Chinese ministry notice settles the date) · US consumer (August core inflation 0.3 percent on the month, 2.4 percent over twelve months; payrolls October 2, CPI October 14) · Russia-Ukraine (the September 27 strikes are campaign evidence, neither a sanctions action nor a procurement print) · NATO borders (no fresh incursion since the Polish airspace incident on September 23) · Red Sea (no fresh dated incident confirmed) · Taiwan (reports on intensity point opposite ways, and neither is counted) · Iran and Hormuz (month five of the war; no fresh incident in the strait confirmed)
Thesis stateMIXED
Does today’s evidence point both ways on the same thesis?
Full entry in the glossaryRule stateFIRED
The test’s condition was met on the close it is judged on, and the card gives the date. A fired rule stays fired. If the price later moves back through the level, the rule is still fired. Only an invalidation can change it.
Full entry in the glossaryRule stateNOT FIRED
The condition has not been met. This label also covers a test whose required conditions were never present, and the card says which case applies. A test that needs a level to hold for two sessions stays NOT FIRED until the second session closes.
Full entry in the glossaryThesis stateCARRIED
Is there nothing new on this lane today? If so, the card keeps its last reading and that reading’s date.
Full entry in the glossaryThesis stateUNCONFIRMED
Does the evidence fit the thesis while another explanation for the same evidence remains open? The card names that explanation.
Full entry in the glossaryIndependent editorial analysis for information and education. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell a security.