Daily Take
US markets have not traded since Friday, so every price in this edition is Friday's close. Friday left a split. After a weak September jobs report, stocks rose and the dollar fell. Treasury yields and gold went the other way. With no new session, Friday's divergence remains unresolved.
One open question did get an answer. The stopgap that funds the US government through December 11 passed the House on September 1 and was signed into law the next day, per the White House. That removes the risk of a shutdown until mid-December. It does not set next year's defense budget, and that budget is what contractors' order books run on.
The week's tests start quickly. OPEC+ meets today. TSMC reports its September sales around October 10, and US inflation for September lands on October 14.
Correction. Saturday's edition gave silver's Friday close as 59.98, down 0.75. The final close was 60.42, down 0.31, so we understated the level by 0.44. The silver view does not change.
Weekend edition: every market level below is a Friday, October 2 published close unless otherwise noted.
The scoreboard
How to read this: each lane is a standing idea about where capital is going. Rule is the condition we set in advance and whether it has been met; Thesis is where the idea stands today. Each lane ends with the next event that tests it. Definitions: Glossary
| Lane | Rule | Rule state | Thesis state | What changed | Next test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense primes | The stopgap's passage and signature | , scored October 4 | The stopgap funding the government through December 11 passed the House on September 1 and was signed into law on September 2. | The companies' next quarterly reports. | |
| Silver | An official COMEX settlement against our silver line | Silver's final Friday close was 60.42, down 0.31, corrected from the 59.98 published Saturday. | The official settlement records for the week. | ||
| Gold / miners | Official COMEX settlements against our two gold lines | Gold's published close fell 40.00 to 4,162.30 while the dollar index fell 0.17. | The official settlement records for the week. | ||
| Semis / memory and foundry | Micron's quarter; TSMC's September sales | MICRON LEG , scored October 2; TSMC LEG | The semiconductor index closed Friday at 13,136.67, up about 2.4 percent. | TSMC's September sales, around October 10. | |
| Japan / the yen | The yen's level; Japan's ten-year yield | JGB LEG , scored September 16; YEN LEG | USD/JPY closed Friday at 157.93; Japan's ten-year yield closed at 3.11 percent. | The finance ministry's monthly intervention figures, end of October. | |
| Rates / the Fed | The October rate path | , withdrawn September 27 | The ten-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 5.28 percent, up from 5.24. | The Fed's meeting, October 28. |
Markets and economy unchanged: US jobs and demand (September inflation, October 14) · crude · global demand · US equity internals · uranium · quantum · AI infrastructure · European defense · drones · critical minerals · cybersecurity · renewables · consumer hardware
Geopolitics unchanged: trade and tariffs · Russia-Ukraine · NATO borders · Red Sea · Taiwan · Iran and Hormuz
Carried lanes, the detail: US jobs and demand (September payrolls of 29,000 and unemployment of 4.2 percent, as reported; the inflation half of the rule prints October 14) · crude (Brent closed Friday at 102.25 and WTI at 91.11; OPEC+ meets October 4) · global demand (no new institutional, tanker-tracking or refinery print) · US equity internals (the S&P 500 closed at 7,722.72; the August 13 record close is the rule) · uranium (Cameco's September 30 row: spot 89.63 and long-term 96.50) · trade and tariffs (the only US account of the September summit names topics and no terms; an official readout is re-checked October 10) · Russia-Ukraine (the sanctions law's deadline is October 18) · Iran and Hormuz (no reopening of the strait has been agreed)
What would change our view
A session with the narrower US-Japan policy-rate gap still in place and the dollar flat enough to isolate the yen, in which the yen still weakens.
Rule stateFIRED
The test’s condition was met on the close it is judged on, and the card gives the date. A fired rule stays fired. If the price later moves back through the level, the rule is still fired. Only an invalidation can change it.
Full entry in the glossaryThesis stateUNDER REVIEW
Has enough evidence built up against the thesis that the thesis itself is in question, not just today’s move?
Full entry in the glossaryRule stateNOT FIRED
The condition has not been met. This label also covers a test whose required conditions were never present, and the card says which case applies. A test that needs a level to hold for two sessions stays NOT FIRED until the second session closes.
Full entry in the glossaryThesis stateCARRIED
Is there nothing new on this lane today? If so, the card keeps its last reading and that reading’s date.
Full entry in the glossaryRule stateINVALIDATED
The test can no longer be judged as written. Either its instrument, level or basis has been overtaken, or the invalidating event we named in advance has happened. We replace or retire an invalidated test openly, and we never change it quietly.
Full entry in the glossaryIndependent editorial analysis for information and education. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell a security.