Daily Take
US markets have not traded since Friday. Tokyo has. Japan's Nikkei closed Monday up about 2.4 percent, picking up Friday's rally in chip stocks. Japan's ten-year government bond yield held at about 3.1 percent, and the yen barely moved against the dollar.
Metals moved too. Gold and silver were higher in early Monday trade while the dollar firmed, so a weaker dollar is not what lifted them. That leaves yields, positioning and demand for safety as the open explanations. Early prices cannot separate them.
Today's US session is the first test of Friday's split. After a weak September jobs report, stocks rose while Treasury yields rose and gold fell. TSMC reports its September sales around October 10, and US inflation for September lands on October 14.
Corrections. Sunday's edition called 60.42 silver's final Friday close and said we had understated it by 0.44. The data provider now shows both 60.42 and the 59.98 we first published, and we withdraw the word final until the exchange's official settlement is in hand. Silver fell on Friday on either figure, about 10 below our 70 line. Sunday's edition also dated a Japanese ten-year yield of 3.11 percent to Friday's close; the source states only Monday's level, about 3.1 percent, and we withdraw the Friday date. Neither changes a view.
Monday edition: every US market level below is a Friday, October 2 published close; figures marked early Monday are early-trade prices.
The scoreboard
How to read this: each lane is a standing idea about where capital is going. Rule is the condition we set in advance and whether it has been met; Thesis is where the idea stands today. Each lane ends with the next event that tests it. Definitions: Glossary
| Lane | Rule | Rule state | Thesis state | What changed | Next test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan / the yen | The yen's level; Japan's ten-year yield | JGB LEG , scored September 16; YEN LEG | Japan's ten-year yield stood at about 3.1 percent in Tokyo on Monday; USD/JPY was 157.94 early Monday, flat from Friday's 157.93. | The finance ministry's monthly intervention figures, end of October. | |
| Gold / miners | Official COMEX settlements against our two gold lines | Gold's published Friday close was 4,162.30; it traded at 4,188.50 early Monday while the dollar index firmed. | The official settlement records for last week. | ||
| Silver | An official COMEX settlement against our silver line | Silver fell on Friday, with the provider's records disagreeing on the exact close, and traded at about 62.2 early Monday. | The exchange's official settlement for Friday. | ||
| Semis / memory and foundry | Micron's quarter; TSMC's September sales | MICRON LEG , scored October 2; TSMC LEG | The semiconductor index closed Friday at 13,136.67, up about 2.4 percent. | TSMC's September sales, around October 10. | |
| Defense primes | The stopgap's passage and signature | , scored October 4 | The stopgap funding the government through December 11 passed the House on September 1 and was signed into law on September 2. | The companies' next quarterly reports. | |
| Rates / the Fed | The October rate path | , withdrawn September 27 | The ten-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 5.28 percent. | The Fed's meeting, October 28. |
Markets and economy unchanged: US jobs and demand (September inflation, October 14) · crude · global demand · US equity internals · uranium · quantum · AI infrastructure · European defense · drones · critical minerals · cybersecurity · renewables · consumer hardware
Geopolitics unchanged: trade and tariffs · Russia-Ukraine · NATO borders · Red Sea · Taiwan · Iran and Hormuz
Carried lanes, the detail: US jobs and demand (September payrolls of 29,000 and unemployment of 4.2 percent, as reported; the inflation half of the rule prints October 14) · crude (Brent closed Friday at 102.25 and WTI at 91.11; OPEC+ held November output unchanged, as reported) · global demand (no new institutional, tanker-tracking or refinery print) · US equity internals (the S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,722.72; the August 13 record close is the rule) · uranium (Cameco's September 30 row: spot 89.63 and long-term 96.50) · trade and tariffs (the only US account of the September summit names topics and no terms; an official readout is re-checked October 10) · Russia-Ukraine (the sanctions law's deadline is October 18) · Iran and Hormuz (no reopening of the strait has been agreed)
What would change our view
A session with the narrower US-Japan policy-rate gap still in place and the dollar flat enough to isolate the yen, in which the yen still weakens.
Rule stateFIRED
The test’s condition was met on the close it is judged on, and the card gives the date. A fired rule stays fired. If the price later moves back through the level, the rule is still fired. Only an invalidation can change it.
Full entry in the glossaryRule stateNOT FIRED
The condition has not been met. This label also covers a test whose required conditions were never present, and the card says which case applies. A test that needs a level to hold for two sessions stays NOT FIRED until the second session closes.
Full entry in the glossaryThesis stateUNCONFIRMED
Does the evidence fit the thesis while another explanation for the same evidence remains open? The card names that explanation.
Full entry in the glossaryThesis stateUNDER REVIEW
Has enough evidence built up against the thesis that the thesis itself is in question, not just today’s move?
Full entry in the glossaryThesis stateCARRIED
Is there nothing new on this lane today? If so, the card keeps its last reading and that reading’s date.
Full entry in the glossaryRule stateINVALIDATED
The test can no longer be judged as written. Either its instrument, level or basis has been overtaken, or the invalidating event we named in advance has happened. We replace or retire an invalidated test openly, and we never change it quietly.
Full entry in the glossaryIndependent editorial analysis for information and education. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell a security.