THESIS HISTORIES

Critical minerals outside China

A dated record of the published view. A carried reading keeps its last assessment date.

End line

No end line is registered for this lane yet.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

Tankers were reported hit in Hormuz. Oil rose, and gold fell below 4,000.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

US growth ran at 3.4 percent. The Bank of Japan held.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

The Fed held, and two officials wanted a hike. Japan decides next.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

Oil fell despite fresh Gulf attack reports. The Fed decides today.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

Oleshky's ceasefire took effect. Gulf shipping is still under threat.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

Three tests this week. The Russia waiver runs until Washington says otherwise.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

A ceasefire for one Ukrainian town. A tanker sunk off Romania.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

Near-term oil jumped more than four dollars. Oil for 2027 slipped.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

Washington tightened sanctions on Iran's shadow fleet. Oil barely moved.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

Brent's far end held for a fifth quiet day. That counts against the demand-slump view.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

Brent barely moved on Monday. One more quiet session would count against the demand-slump view.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

Ukraine hit two oil sites in Saint Petersburg. Brent eased early Monday.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

Oil rose and chips fell Friday. Trump waived new Russia duties that night.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

TSMC's strong quarter did not lift chip stocks. The rest of the market bounced.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

Chips fell more than 4 percent. A day later, TSMC posted a strong quarter.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

Brent's front month fell. December 2027 rose.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

Gulf oil shut-ins fell Monday. Brent rose anyway.

· CARRIED

Rule: NOT FIRED

Gulf oil shut-ins eased Sunday. Another tanker was struck in Hormuz.