US defense primes
A dated record of the published view. A carried reading keeps its last assessment date.
End line
No end line is registered for this lane yet.
· CARRIED
Rule: FIRED
Tankers were reported hit in Hormuz. Oil rose, and gold fell below 4,000.
· CARRIED
Rule: FIRED
· CARRIED
Rule: FIRED
The Fed held, and two officials wanted a hike. Japan decides next.
· CARRIED
Rule: FIRED
Oil fell despite fresh Gulf attack reports. The Fed decides today.
· UNCONFIRMED
Last assessed 2026-10-20.
Rule: FIRED
Oleshky's ceasefire took effect. Gulf shipping is still under threat.
· UNCONFIRMED
Last assessed 2026-10-20.
Rule: FIRED
Three tests this week. The Russia waiver runs until Washington says otherwise.
· UNCONFIRMED
Last assessed 2026-10-20.
Rule: FIRED
A ceasefire for one Ukrainian town. A tanker sunk off Romania.
· UNCONFIRMED
Last assessed 2026-10-20.
Rule: FIRED
Near-term oil jumped more than four dollars. Oil for 2027 slipped.
· UNCONFIRMED
Last assessed 2026-10-20.
Rule: FIRED
Washington tightened sanctions on Iran's shadow fleet. Oil barely moved.
· UNCONFIRMED
Last assessed 2026-10-20.
Rule: FIRED
Brent's far end held for a fifth quiet day. That counts against the demand-slump view.
· UNCONFIRMED
Rule: FIRED
RTX reported third-quarter sales of $25.0 billion on October 20, raised its full-year outlook and put its defense backlog at $164 billion.
Next test: The federal stopgap's expiry, December 11.
Brent barely moved on Monday. One more quiet session would count against the demand-slump view.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-12.
Rule: FIRED
Ukraine hit two oil sites in Saint Petersburg. Brent eased early Monday.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-12.
Rule: FIRED
Oil rose and chips fell Friday. Trump waived new Russia duties that night.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-12.
Rule: FIRED
TSMC's strong quarter did not lift chip stocks. The rest of the market bounced.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-12.
Rule: FIRED
Chips fell more than 4 percent. A day later, TSMC posted a strong quarter.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-12.
Rule: FIRED
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-12.
Rule: FIRED
· UNDER REVIEW
Rule: FIRED
The stopgap funding the government through December 11 passed the House on September 1 and was signed into law on September 2.
Next test: The companies' next quarterly reports.
Gulf oil shut-ins eased Sunday. Another tanker was struck in Hormuz.