Global demand erosion
A dated record of the published view. A carried reading keeps its last assessment date.
End line
No end line is registered for this lane yet.
· UNDER REVIEW
Far-end: FIRED · Forecast: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Brent's December 2027 contract ended Friday at 88.11 on ICE, up from 87.62, a much smaller rise than the front month's.
Next test: The first scored round of the monthly demand forecasts, November 10.
Tankers were reported hit in Hormuz. Oil rose, and gold fell below 4,000.
· UNDER REVIEW
Far-end: FIRED · Forecast: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Brent's December 2027 contract settled Thursday at 87.62 on ICE, down from 88.16, with the front month lower too.
Next test: The first scored round of the monthly demand forecasts, November 10.
· UNDER REVIEW
Far-end: FIRED · Forecast: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Brent's December 2027 contract settled Wednesday at 88.16 on ICE, up from 87.16, with the front month higher too.
Next test: The first scored round of the monthly demand forecasts, November 10.
The Fed held, and two officials wanted a hike. Japan decides next.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-24.
Rule: FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Oil fell despite fresh Gulf attack reports. The Fed decides today.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-24.
Rule: FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Oleshky's ceasefire took effect. Gulf shipping is still under threat.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-24.
Rule: FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Three tests this week. The Russia waiver runs until Washington says otherwise.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-24.
Rule: FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
A ceasefire for one Ukrainian town. A tanker sunk off Romania.
· UNDER REVIEW
Far-end: FIRED · Forecast: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Brent's December 2027 contract settled Thursday at 86.58 on ICE, down from 86.77, while the front month jumped.
Next test: The first scored round of the monthly demand forecasts, November 10.
Near-term oil jumped more than four dollars. Oil for 2027 slipped.
· UNDER REVIEW
Far-end: FIRED · Forecast: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Brent's December 2027 contract settled Wednesday at 86.77 on ICE, up from 86.58, on a day the front month barely moved.
Next test: The first scored round of the monthly demand forecasts, November 10.
Washington tightened sanctions on Iran's shadow fleet. Oil barely moved.
· UNDER REVIEW
Far-end: FIRED · Forecast: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Brent's December 2027 contract settled Tuesday at 86.58 while the front month moved 0.7 percent; the far-end count reached 5 of 5, and the test was met.
Next test: The first scored round of the monthly demand forecasts, November 10.
Brent's far end held for a fifth quiet day. That counts against the demand-slump view.
· MIXED
Far-end: NOT FIRED · Forecast: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Brent's December 2027 contract settled Monday at 86.88 while the front month moved 0.3 percent; the far-end count now stands at 4 of 5.
Next test: Tuesday's ICE settlement, read in the October 21 issue.
Brent barely moved on Monday. One more quiet session would count against the demand-slump view.
· MIXED
Last assessed 2026-10-18.
Far-end: NOT FIRED · Forecast: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Brent's December 2027 contract last settled at 86.69, on Friday; the far-end count stands at 3 of 5.
Next test: The October 19 ICE settlement and the far-end test, read in the October 20 issue, moved from October 19: the settlement comes after this issue.
Ukraine hit two oil sites in Saint Petersburg. Brent eased early Monday.
· MIXED
Far-end: NOT FIRED · Forecast: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Brent's December 2027 contract settled at 86.69, up from 85.08, while the front month rose further.
Next test: The next ICE settlement that could advance the far-end test, October 19.
Oil rose and chips fell Friday. Trump waived new Russia duties that night.
· MIXED
Far-end: NOT FIRED · Forecast: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Brent's December 2027 contract settled at 85.08, down from 86.01, while the front month barely moved.
Next test: The next ICE settlement that could advance the far-end test, October 16.
TSMC's strong quarter did not lift chip stocks. The rest of the market bounced.
· MIXED
Far-end: NOT FIRED · Old forecast: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · New forecast: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Brent's December 2027 contract settled Wednesday at 86.01, down 0.24, while the front month rose.
Next test: The next ICE settlement that could advance the far-end test, October 15.
Chips fell more than 4 percent. A day later, TSMC posted a strong quarter.
· MIXED
Far-end: NOT FIRED · Old forecast: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · New forecast: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Brent's December 2027 contract settled Tuesday at 86.25, up 0.98, while the front month fell; the demand-forecast test was replaced by a counted one.
Next test: The next ICE settlement that could advance the far-end test, October 14.
· MIXED
Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Brent's December 2027 contract settled Monday at 85.27, up 1.39; OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast and raised 2027's.
Next test: The next ICE settlement that could advance the far-end test, October 13.
· MIXED
Old far-end: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · New far-end: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
Brent's December 2027 contract settled Friday at 83.88, up 1.26 from October 5, while the front month rose 4.40.
Next test: OPEC's monthly oil market report, October 13.
Gulf oil shut-ins eased Sunday. Another tanker was struck in Hormuz.