Gold and gold miners
A dated record of the published view. A carried reading keeps its last assessment date.
End line
End line: An official COMEX settlement of the most-active contract (currently December GCZ26) below 4000. Registered October 18, 2026.
An official front-month COMEX settlement below 4300 Registered October 14, 2026; invalidated October 14, 2026 (scored October 17, 2026).
· UNDER REVIEW
EARLIER: INVALIDATED · DECEMBER: NOT FIRED
Spot gold traded at about 3,880 late Friday, its lowest in more than a year, Kitco reports.
Next test: Our read of the December contract's official October 30 settlement, November 2.
Tankers were reported hit in Hormuz. Oil rose, and gold fell below 4,000.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-24.
EARLIER: INVALIDATED · DECEMBER: NOT FIRED
Money managers held a net long position of 104,206 COMEX gold contracts in the week to October 20, the CFTC reports.
Next test: Our read of the December contract's October 29 settlement, November 2, moved from October 30: we could not read CME's settlement record at source.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-24.
EARLIER: INVALIDATED · DECEMBER: NOT FIRED
The Fed held on October 28 with the real ten-year yield at 2.64 percent on October 27; gold's last confirmed December settlement is 4,038.40, from October 26.
Next test: Our read of the December contract's October 29 settlement, October 30.
The Fed held, and two officials wanted a hike. Japan decides next.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-24.
EARLIER: INVALIDATED · DECEMBER: NOT FIRED
Gold's December contract settled at 4,038.40 on COMEX on October 26, after trading as low as 3,990.90.
Next test: Our read of the Fed's decision, October 29, moved from October 28: the statement comes at 2 p.m. Eastern on October 28, after this issue.
Oil fell despite fresh Gulf attack reports. The Fed decides today.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-24.
EARLIER: INVALIDATED · DECEMBER: NOT FIRED
Gold's December contract settled at 4,038.40 on COMEX on October 26, after trading as low as 3,990.90.
Next test: The Fed's decision, October 28.
Oleshky's ceasefire took effect. Gulf shipping is still under threat.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-24.
EARLIER: INVALIDATED · DECEMBER: NOT FIRED
Gold's December contract settled Friday at 4,007.90 on COMEX, after trading as low as 3,989.10.
Next test: The Fed's decision, October 28.
Three tests this week. The Russia waiver runs until Washington says otherwise.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-24.
EARLIER: INVALIDATED · DECEMBER: NOT FIRED
Gold's December contract settled Friday at 4,007.90 on COMEX, after trading as low as 3,989.10.
Next test: The Fed's decision, October 28.
A ceasefire for one Ukrainian town. A tanker sunk off Romania.
· UNDER REVIEW
EARLIER: INVALIDATED · DECEMBER: NOT FIRED
Gold's December contract settled at 4,060.40 on October 22, on the exchange's licensed feed.
Next test: The Fed's decision, October 28.
Near-term oil jumped more than four dollars. Oil for 2027 slipped.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-21.
Rule: INVALIDATED
Gold's December contract last settled at 4,142.60 on the exchange's licensed feed, on October 20.
Next test: The Fed's decision, October 28.
Washington tightened sanctions on Iran's shadow fleet. Oil barely moved.
· UNDER REVIEW
Rule: INVALIDATED
Gold's December contract settled Tuesday at 4,142.60 on the exchange's licensed feed, down from 4,160.10; that closes our settlement check, with CME's own record unchecked at source.
Next test: The Fed's decision, October 28.
Brent's far end held for a fifth quiet day. That counts against the demand-slump view.
· UNDER REVIEW
Rule: INVALIDATED
Gold closed Monday at 4,160.10, down 21, and the exchange-licensed December settlement matched the close.
Next test: Tuesday's December settlement, read in the October 21 issue.
Brent barely moved on Monday. One more quiet session would count against the demand-slump view.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-18.
Rule: INVALIDATED
Gold's last published close was 4,181.10, on Friday.
Next test: The exchange's official settlement records, October 20, moved from October 19: the December settlement is still to be matched against the exchange's own record.
Ukraine hit two oil sites in Saint Petersburg. Brent eased early Monday.
· UNDER REVIEW
Rule: INVALIDATED
Gold's published Friday close was 4,181.10, up 11.00, with the dollar index 0.16 lower.
Next test: The exchange's official settlement records, October 19, moved from October 16: the December settlement is not yet confirmed against the exchange's own record.
Oil rose and chips fell Friday. Trump waived new Russia duties that night.
· UNDER REVIEW
Rule: NOT FIRED · END: UNRESOLVED
Gold's published Thursday close was 4,170.10, up 62.20, on a day the dollar index fell.
Next test: The exchange's official settlement records, October 19, moved from October 16: the December settlement is not yet confirmed against the exchange's own record.
TSMC's strong quarter did not lift chip stocks. The rest of the market bounced.
· UNDER REVIEW
Rule: NOT FIRED · END: UNRESOLVED
Gold's published Wednesday close was 4,107.90, down 69.40, on a day the dollar index rose.
Next test: The exchange's official settlement records.
Chips fell more than 4 percent. A day later, TSMC posted a strong quarter.
· UNDER REVIEW
Rule: NOT FIRED · END: UNRESOLVED
Gold's published Tuesday close was 4,177.30, down 13.30, on a day the dollar index fell.
Next test: The exchange's official settlement records.
· UNDER REVIEW
Confirm: NOT FIRED
Gold's published Monday close was 4,190.60, down 25.70, on a day the dollar index rose.
Next test: The exchange's official settlement records.
· UNDER REVIEW
Rule: NOT FIRED
Gold's published Friday close was 4,216.30, up 59.30.
Next test: The exchange's official settlement records.
Gulf oil shut-ins eased Sunday. Another tanker was struck in Hormuz.