Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
A dated record of the published view. A carried reading keeps its last assessment date.
End line
No end line is registered for this lane yet.
· UNCONFIRMED
Rule: NOT FIRED
A tanker was hit on Thursday by explosives fixed to its hull from a small boat, Reuters reports, citing UKMTO; we could not read UKMTO's notices at source.
Next test: Iran's reported answer to the Qatari draft deal, November 2, moved from October 30: we could not check Iranian or Qatari official statements at source.
Tankers were reported hit in Hormuz. Oil rose, and gold fell below 4,000.
· UNCONFIRMED
Last assessed 2026-10-24.
Rule: NOT FIRED
UKMTO's incident list as of October 27 remains our latest read of the strait at source.
Next test: Iran's reported answer to the Qatari draft deal, November 2, moved from October 30: we could not check Iranian or Qatari official statements at source.
· UNCONFIRMED
Last assessed 2026-10-24.
Rule: NOT FIRED
The re-check of the mid-October tanker attack reports is closed: we could not check the Joint Maritime Information Center's own advisories at source, and UKMTO's list as of October 27 stays our latest read.
Next test: Iran's reported answer to the Qatari draft deal, expected by October 30.
The Fed held, and two officials wanted a hike. Japan decides next.
· UNCONFIRMED
Last assessed 2026-10-24.
Rule: NOT FIRED
Iran's army said on October 27 that a tanker struck naval mines east of the strait and caught fire, as AFP reported.
Next test: The re-check of the mid-October tanker attack reports, October 29, moved from October 27: we could not check the Joint Maritime Information Center's own advisories at source.
Oil fell despite fresh Gulf attack reports. The Fed decides today.
· UNCONFIRMED
Last assessed 2026-10-24.
Rule: NOT FIRED
UK Maritime Trade Operations lists a tanker disabled by an unknown projectile in the strait on October 23, and reports of a vessel on fire off Iraq on October 26.
Next test: The re-check of the mid-October tanker attack reports, October 29, moved from October 27: we could not check the Joint Maritime Information Center's own advisories at source.
Oleshky's ceasefire took effect. Gulf shipping is still under threat.
· UNCONFIRMED
Last assessed 2026-10-24.
Rule: NOT FIRED
Three tests this week. The Russia waiver runs until Washington says otherwise.
· UNCONFIRMED
Last assessed 2026-10-24.
Rule: NOT FIRED
A ceasefire for one Ukrainian town. A tanker sunk off Romania.
· UNCONFIRMED
Last assessed 2026-10-22.
Rule: NOT FIRED
Near-term oil jumped more than four dollars. Oil for 2027 slipped.
· UNCONFIRMED
Rule: NOT FIRED
gCaptain, citing UK Maritime Trade Operations, reports two more tankers struck by projectiles on October 20 and 21, off Iraq and Oman; we could not check UKMTO's own notices at source. The reported attacks point to continued disruption, but they do not show whether passage through the strait has changed, so we close our incident and passage check without a verdict.
Next test: The re-check of the mid-October tanker attack reports, October 24.
Washington tightened sanctions on Iran's shadow fleet. Oil barely moved.
· UNCONFIRMED
Rule: NOT FIRED
Iran's foreign minister said on October 20 that indirect talks with the US continue through intermediaries, including Pakistan and Qatar, Reuters reported.
Next test: The next check of incident and passage reports in the strait, October 22, moved from October 20: we could not check the maritime agencies' own notices at source.
Brent's far end held for a fifth quiet day. That counts against the demand-slump view.
· UNCONFIRMED
Last assessed 2026-10-19.
Rule: NOT FIRED
Anadolu, citing UK maritime warnings, reported two tankers attacked northeast of Saudi Arabia's Al Jubayl on October 16; Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed two supertankers hit mines on October 17.
Next test: The next check of incident and passage reports in the strait, October 22, moved from October 20: we could not check the maritime agencies' own notices at source.
Brent barely moved on Monday. One more quiet session would count against the demand-slump view.
· UNCONFIRMED
Rule: NOT FIRED
Anadolu, citing UK maritime warnings, reported two tankers attacked northeast of Saudi Arabia's Al Jubayl on October 16; Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed two supertankers hit mines on October 17.
Next test: The next check of incident and passage reports in the strait, October 20, moved from October 19: we could not check the maritime agencies' own notices at source.
Ukraine hit two oil sites in Saint Petersburg. Brent eased early Monday.
· UNCONFIRMED
Rule: NOT FIRED
Kpler reported sharply lower Gulf crude flows over ten days; two ships were reported struck in the strait on October 13.
Next test: The next check of incident and passage reports in the strait, October 19.
Oil rose and chips fell Friday. Trump waived new Russia duties that night.
· UNCONFIRMED
Rule: NOT FIRED
Our check found no incident or passage report in the strait dated October 15 or 16.
Next test: The next check of incident and passage reports in the strait, October 19.
TSMC's strong quarter did not lift chip stocks. The rest of the market bounced.
· UNCONFIRMED
Rule: NOT FIRED
We found no report of a strike in the strait dated October 14; the latest reported strikes are from October 13.
Next test: The next check of incident and passage reports in the strait, October 16.
Chips fell more than 4 percent. A day later, TSMC posted a strong quarter.
· UNCONFIRMED
Rule: NOT FIRED
Anadolu reported UK maritime warnings that a container ship and a tanker were struck by unknown projectiles in the strait on Tuesday; no attacker was named.
Next test: A re-check of the strait's transit figures, October 15.
· UNCONFIRMED
Last assessed 2026-10-12.
Rule: NOT FIRED
We have found no report of a new tanker strike in the strait since October 11.
Next test: A re-check of the strait's transit figures, October 15.
· UNCONFIRMED
Rule: NOT FIRED
Tankers were struck in the strait on October 10 and again on October 11, after Reuters counted at least 12 attacks in the week to October 5.
Next test: A re-check of the strait's transit figures, October 15.
Gulf oil shut-ins eased Sunday. Another tanker was struck in Hormuz.