Japan and the yen
A dated record of the published view. A carried reading keeps its last assessment date.
End line
No end line is registered for this lane yet.
· CARRIED
JGB: FIRED · Yen: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Tankers were reported hit in Hormuz. Oil rose, and gold fell below 4,000.
· CARRIED
JGB: FIRED · Yen: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
The Bank of Japan held its overnight call rate target at around 1.25 percent on October 30, by an 8-1 vote.
Next test: The finance ministry's monthly intervention figures, November 2, moved from October 30: we could not read the ministry's own release at source.
· CARRIED
Rule: FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
The Fed held, and two officials wanted a hike. Japan decides next.
· CARRIED
Rule: FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
Oil fell despite fresh Gulf attack reports. The Fed decides today.
· CARRIED
Rule: FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
Oleshky's ceasefire took effect. Gulf shipping is still under threat.
· CARRIED
Rule: FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
Three tests this week. The Russia waiver runs until Washington says otherwise.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-16.
Rule: FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
A ceasefire for one Ukrainian town. A tanker sunk off Romania.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-16.
Rule: FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
Near-term oil jumped more than four dollars. Oil for 2027 slipped.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-16.
Rule: FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
Washington tightened sanctions on Iran's shadow fleet. Oil barely moved.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-16.
Rule: FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
Brent's far end held for a fifth quiet day. That counts against the demand-slump view.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-16.
Rule: FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
Brent barely moved on Monday. One more quiet session would count against the demand-slump view.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-16.
Rule: FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
Ukraine hit two oil sites in Saint Petersburg. Brent eased early Monday.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-16.
JGB: FIRED · Yen: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
Japan's ten-year bond last sold at an average yield of about 3.10 percent, at the October 6 auction.
Next test: The finance ministry's monthly intervention figures, end of October.
Oil rose and chips fell Friday. Trump waived new Russia duties that night.
· UNDER REVIEW
JGB: FIRED · Yen: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
USD/JPY traded near 158.02 on Friday morning; the dollar index fell 0.55 on Thursday.
Next test: The finance ministry's monthly intervention figures, end of October.
TSMC's strong quarter did not lift chip stocks. The rest of the market bounced.
· UNDER REVIEW
JGB: FIRED · Yen: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
USD/JPY traded near 157.81 on Thursday morning; the dollar index rose 0.37 on Wednesday.
Next test: The finance ministry's monthly intervention figures, end of October.
Chips fell more than 4 percent. A day later, TSMC posted a strong quarter.
· UNDER REVIEW
JGB: FIRED · Yen: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
USD/JPY traded near 158.46 on Wednesday morning; the dollar index fell 0.4 on Tuesday.
Next test: The finance ministry's monthly intervention figures, end of October.
· UNDER REVIEW
JGB: FIRED · Yen: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
USD/JPY traded near 158.05 on Tuesday morning, about where it closed Friday.
Next test: The finance ministry's monthly intervention figures, end of October.
· UNDER REVIEW
JGB: FIRED · Yen: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: NOT FIRED
Japan's ten-year bond auction on October 6 drew an average yield of about 3.10 percent.
Next test: The finance ministry's monthly intervention figures, end of October.
Gulf oil shut-ins eased Sunday. Another tanker was struck in Hormuz.