Russia, Ukraine and sanctions
A dated record of the published view. A carried reading keeps its last assessment date.
End line
End line: 2026-12-16 passes with no qualifying document ending or narrowing the Graham Act duty waiver, or a White House or State Department document closes the 60-day review with the waiver unchanged. Registered October 23, 2026.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-25.
Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: INVALIDATED
Tankers were reported hit in Hormuz. Oil rose, and gold fell below 4,000.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-25.
Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: INVALIDATED
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-25.
Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: INVALIDATED
The Fed held, and two officials wanted a hike. Japan decides next.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-25.
Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: INVALIDATED
Oil fell despite fresh Gulf attack reports. The Fed decides today.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-25.
Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: INVALIDATED
Oleshky's ceasefire took effect. Gulf shipping is still under threat.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-25.
WAIVER: NOT FIRED · EARLIER: INVALIDATED
The October 16 order keeps the waiver in place until the President or the Secretary of State acts; the 60 days Secretary Rubio cited is his own timeline.
Next test: A check for new congressional or administrative action, November 2, moved from October 26: we could not check the State Department's or Congress's own records at source.
Three tests this week. The Russia waiver runs until Washington says otherwise.
· UNDER REVIEW
WAIVER: NOT FIRED · EARLIER: INVALIDATED
Russia and Ukraine agreed a ceasefire around occupied Oleshky, from October 27 per both militaries or October 29 per the White House, and a drone sank a tanker off Constanta.
Next test: A check for new congressional or administrative action, October 26, moved from October 20: we could not check the White House's or Congress's own records at source.
A ceasefire for one Ukrainian town. A tanker sunk off Romania.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-21.
Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: INVALIDATED
The order that waived the 500 percent duty on Russian goods was published in the Federal Register on October 21; Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the president would take up to 60 days to weigh it, a remark we could not check at source.
Next test: A check for new congressional or administrative action, October 26, moved from October 20: we could not check the White House's or Congress's own records at source.
Near-term oil jumped more than four dollars. Oil for 2027 slipped.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-21.
Rule: INVALIDATED
Washington tightened sanctions on Iran's shadow fleet. Oil barely moved.
· UNDER REVIEW
Rule: INVALIDATED
Envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin in Saint Petersburg on October 21, and Russia released the detained American Stephen Hubbard, ABC News reported.
Next test: A check for new congressional or administrative action, October 26, moved from October 20: we could not check the White House's or Congress's own records at source.
Brent's far end held for a fifth quiet day. That counts against the demand-slump view.
· UNDER REVIEW
Last assessed 2026-10-19.
Rule: INVALIDATED
Ukrainian drones hit an oil terminal and depot in Saint Petersburg on October 18; Rubio said on October 17 the president would take up to 60 days to weigh the Russia sanctions.
Next test: A check for new congressional or administrative action, October 26, moved from October 20: we could not check the White House's or Congress's own records at source.
Brent barely moved on Monday. One more quiet session would count against the demand-slump view.
· UNDER REVIEW
Rule: INVALIDATED
Ukrainian drones hit an oil terminal and depot in Saint Petersburg on October 18; Rubio said on October 17 the president would take up to 60 days to weigh the Russia sanctions.
Next test: A check for new congressional or administrative action, October 20.
Ukraine hit two oil sites in Saint Petersburg. Brent eased early Monday.
· UNDER REVIEW
Rule: INVALIDATED
Trump signed an order on October 16 implementing the sanctions law and waiving its Russia duties, with a certification to Congress; the waiver has no end date.
Next test: A check for new congressional or administrative action, October 20.
Oil rose and chips fell Friday. Trump waived new Russia duties that night.
· CARRIED
Rule: NOT FIRED
TSMC's strong quarter did not lift chip stocks. The rest of the market bounced.
· CARRIED
Rule: NOT FIRED
Chips fell more than 4 percent. A day later, TSMC posted a strong quarter.
· CARRIED
Rule: NOT FIRED
· CARRIED
Rule: NOT FIRED
· CARRIED
Rule: NOT FIRED
Gulf oil shut-ins eased Sunday. Another tanker was struck in Hormuz.