THESIS HISTORIES

Chipmakers and foundries beyond Nvidia

A dated record of the published view. A carried reading keeps its last assessment date.

End line

No end line is registered for this lane yet.

· MIXED

Micron: FIRED · TSMC: FIRED

The semiconductor index closed Friday at 10,688.80, from 11,518.20.

Next test: Our next read of the chip lane, November 2.

Tankers were reported hit in Hormuz. Oil rose, and gold fell below 4,000.

· MIXED

Last assessed 2026-10-26.

Micron: FIRED · TSMC: FIRED

The semiconductor index closed Thursday at 11,518.20, from 11,684.00. Our re-check for a statement or filing from SK hynix or Intel on the Ohio project is closed: we could not read either company's own statements or filings at source.

Next test: Our next read of the chip lane, November 2.

US growth ran at 3.4 percent. The Bank of Japan held.

· MIXED

Last assessed 2026-10-26.

Micron: FIRED · TSMC: FIRED

The Fed held on October 28, and the semiconductor index closed that day at 11,684.00, in a session that included the statement.

Next test: Our re-check for a statement or filing from SK hynix or Intel on the Ohio project, October 30.

The Fed held, and two officials wanted a hike. Japan decides next.

· MIXED

Last assessed 2026-10-26.

Micron: FIRED · TSMC: FIRED

The semiconductor index closed Tuesday, October 27 at 11,482.50.

Next test: Our check of the chip lane against the Fed's decision, October 29, moved from October 28: the statement comes after this issue.

Oil fell despite fresh Gulf attack reports. The Fed decides today.

· MIXED

Last assessed 2026-10-26.

Rule: FIRED · Rule: FIRED

Oleshky's ceasefire took effect. Gulf shipping is still under threat.

· MIXED

Micron: FIRED · TSMC: FIRED

The semiconductor index closed Friday at 10,779.46, down about 4.5 percent from 11,283.81 on October 20.

Next test: The Fed's decision, October 28.

Three tests this week. The Russia waiver runs until Washington says otherwise.

· MIXED

Last assessed 2026-10-18.

Rule: FIRED · Rule: FIRED

A ceasefire for one Ukrainian town. A tanker sunk off Romania.

· MIXED

Last assessed 2026-10-18.

Rule: FIRED · Rule: FIRED

Near-term oil jumped more than four dollars. Oil for 2027 slipped.

· MIXED

Last assessed 2026-10-18.

Rule: FIRED · Rule: FIRED

Washington tightened sanctions on Iran's shadow fleet. Oil barely moved.

· MIXED

Last assessed 2026-10-18.

Rule: FIRED · Rule: FIRED

Brent's far end held for a fifth quiet day. That counts against the demand-slump view.

· MIXED

Last assessed 2026-10-18.

Rule: FIRED · Rule: FIRED

Brent barely moved on Monday. One more quiet session would count against the demand-slump view.

· MIXED

Last assessed 2026-10-18.

Rule: FIRED · Rule: FIRED

Ukraine hit two oil sites in Saint Petersburg. Brent eased early Monday.

· MIXED

Micron: FIRED · TSMC: FIRED

The semiconductor index fell about 3.8 percent on Friday, to 11,137.29, while the S&P 500 fell about 1.1 percent.

Next test: The Fed's decision, October 28.

Oil rose and chips fell Friday. Trump waived new Russia duties that night.

· MIXED

Micron: FIRED · TSMC: FIRED

In the first US session after TSMC's results, the semiconductor index fell about 0.9 percent while the S&P 500 rose.

Next test: The Fed's decision, October 28.

TSMC's strong quarter did not lift chip stocks. The rest of the market bounced.

· MIXED

Micron: FIRED · TSMC: FIRED

The semiconductor index fell more than 4 percent on Wednesday; on Thursday TSMC reported third-quarter revenue up about 51 percent on a year earlier.

Next test: The first US session after TSMC's results, October 15.

Chips fell more than 4 percent. A day later, TSMC posted a strong quarter.

· UNCONFIRMED

Micron: FIRED · TSMC: FIRED

The semiconductor index slipped about 0.2 percent on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 about flat.

Next test: TSMC's third-quarter results, October 15.

Brent's front month fell. December 2027 rose.

· UNCONFIRMED

Micron: FIRED · TSMC: FIRED

The semiconductor index fell about 2.7 percent on Monday while the S&P 500 was about flat.

Next test: TSMC's third-quarter results, October 15.

Gulf oil shut-ins fell Monday. Brent rose anyway.

· UNCONFIRMED

Micron: FIRED · TSMC: FIRED

The semiconductor index fell about 4.3 percent over the week while the S&P 500 rose about 1.2 percent.

Next test: TSMC's third-quarter results, October 15.

Gulf oil shut-ins eased Sunday. Another tanker was struck in Hormuz.