The US consumer
A dated record of the published view. A carried reading keeps its last assessment date.
End line
No end line is registered for this lane yet.
· CARRIED
Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Tankers were reported hit in Hormuz. Oil rose, and gold fell below 4,000.
· CARRIED
Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
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Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
The Fed held, and two officials wanted a hike. Japan decides next.
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Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Oil fell despite fresh Gulf attack reports. The Fed decides today.
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Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Oleshky's ceasefire took effect. Gulf shipping is still under threat.
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Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Three tests this week. The Russia waiver runs until Washington says otherwise.
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Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
A ceasefire for one Ukrainian town. A tanker sunk off Romania.
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Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Near-term oil jumped more than four dollars. Oil for 2027 slipped.
· MIXED
Last assessed 2026-10-15.
Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Washington tightened sanctions on Iran's shadow fleet. Oil barely moved.
· MIXED
Last assessed 2026-10-15.
Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Brent's far end held for a fifth quiet day. That counts against the demand-slump view.
· MIXED
Last assessed 2026-10-15.
Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Brent barely moved on Monday. One more quiet session would count against the demand-slump view.
· MIXED
Last assessed 2026-10-15.
Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Ukraine hit two oil sites in Saint Petersburg. Brent eased early Monday.
· MIXED
Last assessed 2026-10-15.
Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
Oil rose and chips fell Friday. Trump waived new Russia duties that night.
· MIXED
Last assessed 2026-10-15.
Rule: NOT FIRED · Rule: RETIRED UNRESOLVED
September retail sales rose 0.8 percent, a nominal figure that includes higher prices.
Next test: Re-check of the October consumer price report, November 10, moved from October 16: not yet released.
TSMC's strong quarter did not lift chip stocks. The rest of the market bounced.
· MIXED
Old inflation: RETIRED UNRESOLVED · New inflation: NOT FIRED
Services prices rose 0.4 percent in September after 0.3 on our provisional measure, while retail sales excluding autos and gasoline rose 0.2 percent.
Next test: The October consumer price report.
Chips fell more than 4 percent. A day later, TSMC posted a strong quarter.
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Rule: NOT FIRED
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· CARRIED
Rule: NOT FIRED
Gulf oil shut-ins eased Sunday. Another tanker was struck in Hormuz.